Posts Tagged ‘2012 presidential elections’
Andrew Sullivan, the King of Bloggers, has written a Newsweek cover story which is featuring heavily in American political discussion on tv, in newspapers and on blogs right now. From over here, it’s sometimes difficult to realize that Sullivan is not just a blogger, albeit a big one, but also a pretty prominent “public intellectual” (as they say) in the US, who from time to time -- as a very early advocate of gay marriage, as proponent of the Iraq War, as supporter of Obama -- generates a lot of public debate.
In the Newsweek article, Sullivan argues, as one of the first people to elaborately do so, passionately for Obama’s re-election. He basically says that Obama’s political strategy is a “long game”, of which we have not seen the results yet, which will only play out in eight years. In doing so, he obviously and correctly dismisses the president’s conservative ”critics” (we may just call them lunatics), but also takes on criticism of Obama from “the left”. Personally, while I certainly agree with Sullivan that Obama has by and large been a good president -- in that he has saved the US and the West from plunging into a systemic crisis largely caused by Bush, through the stimulus, the bail-outs of Wall Street and the auto industry, having healthcare reform passed, getting out of Iraq, reaching out to the Muslim world, responding carefully to the Green Revolution and the Arab Spring, and taking on Qadhafi -- he has also failed miserably to keep up to his promises to restore the rule of law. Under Obama, indefinite detention has been enshrined into law, Guantánamo Bay has seen its tenth birthday, military commissions have been kept open, a Drone War killing hundreds of innocents has been started, extrajudicial assassination has become normal, and a war on whistleblowers and transparency-seekers has been waged. Torture has merely been halted by executive order and can easily be reversed by a Republican president.
This, I think, is unforgivable; it is a core reason not to support Obama’s re-election; and Sullivan passes it too easily by. I also think he fails to engage seriously with Obama’s critics that he relents too easily in the face of opposition, as was the case with healthcare and the debt ceiling crisis. Sullivan doesn’t mention anywhere the deep interpenetration of the Obama administration and Wall Street lobbyists. And, finally, I think it’s kind of slavish and rather uncritical to say: “It’s all part of the masterplan, just wait, it will all play out in eight years, just vote now, it’s Obama!” But that is a tendency you see more often in Obama supporters.
Anyway. The only reason I wanted to write this was because I thought it was funny to see Sullivan, whom you almost only know by writing, defend his article on television. And he’s doing it pretty well actually. Enjoy this weird-in-a-sympathetic-way person’s discussion with a Republican supporter:
- Edit: In the best response to Sullivan’s article so far, here’s Conor Friedersdorf, who writes it down better than I can. First he asks if Sullivan would have supported a Republican in 2008 who would have proposed the following:
(1) Codify indefinite detention into law; (2) draw up a secret kill list of people, including American citizens, to assassinate without due process; (3) proceed with warrantless spying on American citizens; (4) prosecute Bush-era whistleblowers for violating state secrets; (5) reinterpret the War Powers Resolution such that entering a war of choice without a Congressional declaration is permissible; (6) enter and prosecute such a war; (7) institutionalize naked scanners and intrusive full body pat-downs in major American airports; (8) oversee a planned expansion of TSA so that its agents are already beginning to patrol American highways, train stations, and bus depots; (9) wage an undeclared drone war on numerous Muslim countries that delegates to the CIA the final call about some strikes that put civilians in jeopardy; (10) invoke the state-secrets privilege to dismiss lawsuits brought by civil-liberties organizations on dubious technicalities rather than litigating them on the merits; (11) preside over federal raids on medical marijuana dispensaries; (12) attempt to negotiate an extension of American troops in Iraq beyond 2011 (an effort that thankfully failed); (14) reauthorize the Patriot Act; (13) and select an economic team mostly made up of former and future financial executives from Wall Street firms that played major roles in the financial crisis.
Yet President Obama has done all of the aforementioned things.
No, Obama isn’t a radical Kenyan anti-colonialist. But he is a lawbreaker and an advocate of radical executive power. What precedent could be more radical than insisting that the executive is empowered to draw up a kill list of American citizens in secret, without telling anyone what names are on it, or the legal justification for it, or even that it exists? What if Newt Gingrich inherits that power?
He may yet.
[Sullivan's] Newsweek essay fits the pattern I’ve lamented of Obama apologists who tell a narrative of his administration that ignores some of these issues and minimizes the importance of others, as if they’re a relatively unimportant matter to be set aside in a sentence or three before proceeding to the more important business of whether the president is being critiqued fairly by obtuse partisans.
Like President Bush, [Obama] is breaking the law, transgressing against civil liberties, and championing a radical view of executive power -- and he is invoking the War on Terror to get away with it. As much as it was in 2003 or 2007, it is vital in 2012 that there be a backlash against these post-9/11 excesses, that liberty-loving citizens push back so that these are anomalies that are reined in, rather than permanent features of a bipartisan consensus that can only end in a catastrophically abusive executive operating in an office stripped by successive presidents and their minions of both constitutional and prudential checks.
That is the best case against Obama I can think of. It is, indeed, vital that there is a backlash against his policies.
This is fantastic. Check the video below. It looks and sounds like a Michael Moore, i.e. a left-wing documentary, in its critique of unrestrained capitalism. The focal point of critique is Republican forerunner Mitt Romney, who during the campaign has always touted his ‘private sector experience’ as an aid in creating jobs as president. Yet Romney was CEO of Bain Capital, an asset management company specializing in private equity and venture capital; in other words, a company that buys other companies to ‘restructure’ them, fire lots of people, and re-sell it to make huge profits out of it. It made Romney a millionnaire.
While some people might see such a company as a necessary feature of free market capitalism, others might see it as Gordon Gekko-style profiteering over the backs of other people. That’s at least what Newt Gingrich, whose campaign has created this 28-minute video, seems to imply. Yes, Gingrich, one-time leader of the Republican Revolution, Speaker of the House and prominent conservative, who got trashed by Romney in Iowa. You gotta love this.
It’s funny to me how die-hard Republicans are now adopting Occupy Wall Street language in order to defeat one another. Obama can sit back and enjoy while Romney’s image is trashed among blue-collar workers. And seriously: while the physical manifestation of Occupy may have disappeared in cities, they have struck a note in their critique of financial capitalism that is still resounding. Even in the Republican Party.
Ron Paul -- the candidate who, apparently, is being ignored by the MSM in America -- came in a strong second in New Hampshire yesterday. Whereas Mitt Romney had 39,4 percent, Paul got 22,8 percent. Leaving Jon Huntsman aside, the remaining voters are divided up between the pathetic conservative challengers of Romney (Gingrich, Santorum and Perry) who all performed terribly. Nevertheless, the entire media spin is still about the inevitable winner Romney and who of them the more conservative anti-Romney is gonna be.
Paul, however, also came in third in Iowa, getting more than 22 percent there (Romney had 40). After Romney, he has the biggest ground operation in the country. So while the only thing you’ll probably read about in the big media is Romney’s victory, Paul is doing really good in this election cycle (the best ever). He’s also vastly outperforming Romney among independents and under-30 voters.
Now check out Paul’s speech from yesterday night. This is not an Obama-style speech, filled with brilliant rhetorical heights; but it is so authentic and great to watch, this old guy surrounded by his supporters talking about foreign wars, the military-industrial complex and liberty. Of course, the stuff about the Fed is unbearable, but nevertheless, it’s great watching this:
Now compare that to this dickhead who’s talking here. Surrounded by his dickhead douchebag sons. A robot designed to win elections, full of arrogance, contempt and boastfulness. It’s the Ugly American right there, I’m sorry to say:
There is no primary. There is no general. There is only this: I am Mitt Romney’s haircut. This is my year, and I will not be denied. Everything about me is presidential. You may not even know why, but you’ve all thought it, and that’s no accident. I’ve been designed precisely for this moment. I’m a hybrid of every classic American presidential hairstyle since the 1930s. Roosevelt’s fatherly gray temples. Kennedy’s insouciant bouffant. Reagan’s lethal, revolutionary amalgam of feathering and pomade.
In addition, read this great article about the current quandary for liberals and progressives, whether to support Paul or Obama. In case you’ve been following the discussion in the comments, it almost perfectly encapsulates what was being said there. Here’s the dilemma:
To review the basic Paul profile: When it comes to government social spending and regulation, Paul is more antithetical to progressive goals than any candidate running for the White House. This is indisputable. At the same time, though, when it comes to war, surveillance, police power, bank bailouts, cutting the defense budget, eliminating corporate welfare and civil liberties, Paul is more in line with progressive goals than any candidate running in 2012 (or almost any Democrat who has held a federal office in the last 30 years). This, too, is indisputable.
In seeing Paul’s economic views, positions on a woman’s right to choose, regulatory ideas and ties to racist newsletters as disqualifying factors for their electoral support, many self-identified liberal Obama supporters are essentially deciding that, for purposes of voting, those set of issues are simply more important to them than the issues of war, foreign policy, militarism, Wall Street bailouts, surveillance, police power and civil liberties that is, issues in which Paul is far more progressive than the sitting
There’s certainly a logic to that position, and that logic fits within the conventionally accepted rubric of progressivism. But let’s not pretend here: Holding this position about what is and is not a disqualifying factor is a clear statement of priorities — more specifically, a statement that Paul’s odious economics, regulatory ideas, position on reproductive rights and ties to bigotry should be more electorally disqualifying than President Obama’s odious escalation of wars, drone killing of innocents, due-process-free assassinations, expansion of surveillance, increases in the defense budget, massive ongoing bank bailouts and continuation of the racist drug war.
By contrast, Paul’s progressive-minded supporters are simply taking the other position — they are basically saying that, for purposes of voting, President Obama’s record on militarism, civil liberties, foreign policy, defense budgets and bailouts are more disqualifying than Paul’s newsletter, economics, abortion and regulatory positions. Again, there’s an obvious logic to this position — one that also fits well within the conventional definition of progressivism. And just as Obama supporters shouldn’t pretend they aren’t expressing their preferences, Paul’s supporters shouldn’t do that either. Their support of the Republican congressman is a statement of personal priorities within the larger progressive agenda.
A statement like the one done by Rick Santorum below, in 2005, honestly makes me physically nautious:
This whole idea of personal autonomy, well I don’t think most conservatives hold that point of view. Some do. They have this idea that people should be left alone, be able to do whatever they want to do, government should keep our taxes down and keep our regulations low, that we shouldn’t get involved in the bedroom, we shouldn’t get involved in cultural issues. You know, people should do whatever they want. Well, that is not how traditional conservatives view the world and I think most conservatives understand that individuals can’t go it alone. That there is no such society that I am aware of, where we’ve had radical individualism and that it succeeds as a culture.
The worst danger in politics, in my view, is groups (mostly, but not always, religious and conservatives) that try to restrict the freedoms of individuals from one particular mindset. In the Netherlands, we have the religious left and right attempting to do that. In the US, there’s the Christianists and evangelicals. Of these, the curently rising Santorum probably represents the most extremist incarnation.
The New Republic has compiled a list of the most awful shit Santorum has said. If you can bear it, read it.
On the Catholic Church’s abuse scandals: “Priests, like all of us, are affected by culture. When the culture is sick, every element in it becomes infected. While it is no excuse for this scandal, it is no surprise that Boston, a seat of academic, political, and cultural liberalism in America, lies at the center of the storm.”
On same sex marriage and bestiality: “In every society, the definition of marriage has not ever to my knowledge included homosexuality. That’s not to pick on homosexuality. It’s not, you know, man on child, man on dog, or whatever the case may be. It is one thing. And when you destroy that you have a dramatic impact on the quality…”
On the Massachusetts Supreme Court’s decision to approve same sex marriage: “This is an issue just like 9/11. We didn’t decide we wanted to fight the war on terrorism because we wanted to. It was brought to us. And if not now, when? When the supreme courts in all the other states have succumbed to the Massachusetts version of the law?”
On the link between same sex marriage and national security: “I would argue that the future of America hangs in the balance, because the future of the family hangs in the balance. Isn’t that the ultimate homeland security, standing up and defending marriage?”
On the war in Iraq: “As the hobbits are going up Mount Doom, the eye of Mordor is being drawn somewhere else. It’s being drawn to Iraq. You know what? I want to keep it on Iraq. I don’t want the eye to come back to the United States.”
On contraception: “Many of the Christian faith have said, well, that’s okay, contraception is okay. It’s not okay. It’s a license to do things in a sexual realm that is counter to how things are supposed to be.”
On the Affordable Care Act: “I would tell you that my first priority as a president of the United States is to repeal Barack Obama’s healthcare plan. I think it’s the most dangerous piece of legislation, well, in many generations. It is the reason that I’m running for office. Because I believe Obamacare is a game changer. I believe Obamacare will rob America, the best way I can put it is, rob America of its soul.”
On President Obama’s pro-choice stance: “I find it almost remarkable for a black man to say ‘now we are going to decide who are people and who are not people.’”
On global warming: “I believe the earth gets warmer, and I also believe the earth gets cooler, and I think history points out that it does that and that the idea that man through the production of CO2, which is a trace gas in the atmosphere and the man-made part of that trace gas is itself a trace gas, is somehow responsible for climate change is, I think, just patently absurd when you consider all of the other factors, El Niño, La Niña, sunspots, you know, moisture in the air.”
And they say Christianity is a religion of love.
Yesterday I read somewhere that Newt Gingrich -- the latest insurgent in the Republican presidential race, and current challenger of Mitt Romney -, who is a historian, wrote his Ph.D. thesis in 1971 about ‘Belgian education policy in the Congo: 1945-1960‘.
I thought that was pretty amusing for a former Speaker of the House, author of the 1994 ‘Republican Revolution’, and possible Republican presidential nominee, so I wanted to look it up and blog something about it.
But lo and behold, someone was there first. Robert Paul Wolff at the blog The Philosopher’s Stone read Newt Gingrich’s Ph.D. thesis, so enjoy his review:
Wikipedia informed me that Gingrich did his graduate work in the Tulane history department; the Tulane website took me to the university’s library catalogue; the Duke University Reference Librarian talked me through the download process over the phone [never easy for old guys like me], and there it was: “Belgian Education Policy in the Congo: 1945-1960 A Dissertation Submitted on the Sixth Day of May, 1971 to the Department of History of the Graduate School of Tulane University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy by Newton Leroy Gingrich.” Two hundred eighty-three pages of text, typed and double-spaced in standard dissertation format, five pages of tables, five pages of “selected bibliography” and a one-page biographical sketch of the author indicating that he was awarded a B.A. by Emory University.
Why on earth Belgian educational policy in the Congo? Newt was studying Modern European History, to be sure, but the topic seems rather obscure. The dissertation lacks the typical page of acknowledgements that might offer a clue, but a bit more surfing of the web reveals that the dissertation director, Professor Pierre Henri Laurent, whose name appears on the signature page, was the son of “an eminent Belgian historian, who died during the Resistance; his mother was a distinguished teacher and linguist. Pierre and his older sister were brought as children to the United States by their mother when the Second World War broke out.” Mystery solved.
The dissertation is written in a pedantic, serviceable prose, giving no evidence of the Newt that was to emerge as a fully formed Toad. Although the dissertation is written entirely in English, the footnotes give evidence that Gingrich had a quite adequate command of written French. [The only word in the entire dissertation not in English or French is misspelled -- Weltanschauung with only one "u" -- page 205, line 2] Gingrich relies heavily on secondary sources, with especial attention to the work of Ruth Slade and Roger Anstey. However, he has clearly made extensive use of Belgian public documents, including reports of Parliamentary debates. There is no evidence in the text that he traveled either to Belgium or to the Congo, and he seems not to have interviewed any of the principal actors, Belgian or Congolese, even though the dissertation was written only a handful of years after the departure of the Belgians from the Congo.
The structure of the dissertation is straightforward: an Introduction, three chapters on the political and historical background of Belgium’s colonization of the Congo, nine chapters on various aspects of the educational institutions introduced by the Belgians into the Congo — religious education, secular education for the Congolese, secular education for Belgians living in the Congo, education for women, agricultural education, technical education, higher education for the Congolese, etc. — and a Conclusion.
The political or ideological orientation of the dissertation, if I may put it this way, is roughly that of a Cold War member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Colonization is seen almost entirely from the perspective of the colonial power, not from that of the indigenous population. The rule of King Leopold II, who literally owned the colony as his private property until, at his death, he willed it to Belgium, is widely understood to have been the most horrifyingly brutal colonial regime in Africa. Gingrich acknowledges this fact once in the dissertation. Speaking of the financial pressures placed by the Congo on King Leopold’s coffers, Gingrich reports that a “state official told a missionary in 1899 that each time a corporal ‘goes out to get rubber he is given cartridges. He must return all those that are not used; and for every one used he must bring back a right hand.’” [p. 15]
But with this sole exception, Gingrich’s picture of the Belgian colonial administration is reasonably favorable. As I read his account of the struggles by dedicated Belgian colonial administrators to provide some measure of formal education to the Congolese, in the face of a generally uninterested and neglectful government in Brussels, I was reminded of nothing so much as the writings of John Stuart Mill on India, and the responsibility of cultivated, enlightened Englishmen to bear the heavy burden of stewardship until the non-European peoples are ready for self-rule.
Although he makes no effort at all to consult the colonized and give voice to their view of the Belgian rule, Gingrich does at one point, rather surprisingly, quote Father Placide Tempels quite favorably and at some length. [pages 100-101.] Tempels was a missionary priest who wrote an important book called Bantu Philosophy. It is the first acknowledgement by a European author that the indigenous peoples of Africa have complex, philosophically sophisticated conceptions of the world and their place in it. I confess that I was surprised and impressed to see Tempels put in an appearance in Gingrich’s dissertation. I was a good deal less pleased by Gingrich’s reliance on the always questionable Colin Turnbull.
- Edit: Also enjoy this interview of Newt Gingrich by Ali G:
Well, maybe not the entire Republican Party consists of idiots. There are insurrectionist rebels, such as Ron Paul or Jon Huntsman. Unfortunately, in today’s GOP they don’t stand a chance. But it is important that their voices are heard, as they represent the last bouts of sanity within that political organization.
Listen to Ron Paul opposing torture vis-a-vis a torture-loving audience. Big-time kudos and respect for this man.
Listen to this man - the frontrunner for the Republican Party nomination.
Is there anyone out there who considers him/herself a serious observer of politics, and wants to keep up the fiction that the Republican Party is a normal, well-functioning political party? An entity that is to be taken seriously? A credible alternative for government?
The Republican Party -- their elected officials, their registered members, and everybody who votes for them -- is a bunch of clowns, morons and idiots that can not in any way be taken seriously. If you do, you can not be taken seriously.
Really: if the US once more elects a Republican for president, the time has come to reconsider the position of America in the world. They will then have voluntarily ceded their position as world leader and adopted a position as, say, Russia or Venezuela. A crazy has-been nation. Time to look for new world leadership then. Maybe China will do.
The One Big Issue has just been inserted into the 2012 presidential election campaign: the Supreme Court will hear a case challenging Obama’s healthcare law. The decision – whether the healthcare reform act, specifically the individual mandate requiring all citizens to purchase healthcare insurance, is constitutional or not – will come in late June 2012, in the midst of the presidential campaign.
As blogged about earlier on here, the healthcare issue is the one big rallying point for conservatives against Obama. If the Supreme Court strikes it down, we may regard Obama’s presidential term as a failure. Moreover, if this Court strikes down the individual mandate as in violation of the Commerce Clause (which allows the federal government to regulate the economy), the floodgates are open. To put it bluntly, the entire regulatory and welfare structure in America as constructed since FDR’s 1930s then comes into jeopardy. It may become the end of the New Deal.
That’s of course the wet dream of every contemporary Tea Partier and Republican. So watch out, as the US economy may be catapulted back to the late 1700s by a conservative Supreme Court…
The Supreme Court on Monday agreed to hear a challenge to the 2010 health care overhaul law, President Obama’s signature legislative achievement. The development set the stage for oral arguments by March and a decision in late June, in the midst of the 2012 presidential campaign.
The court’s decision to step in had been expected, but Monday’s order answered many questions about just how the case would proceed. Indeed, it offered a roadmap toward a ruling that will help define the legacy of the Supreme Court under Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr.
Appeals from three courts had been vying for the justices’ attention, presenting an array of issues beyond the central one of whether Congress has the constitutional power to require people to purchase health insurance or face a penalty through the so-called individual mandate.
The Supreme Court agreed to hear appeals from just one decision, from the United States Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit, in Atlanta, the only one so far striking down the mandate. The decision, from a divided three-judge panel, said the mandate overstepped Congressional authority and could not be justified by the constitutional power “to regulate commerce” or “to lay and collect taxes.”
The appeals court went no further, though, severing the mandate from the rest of the law.
On Monday, the justices agreed to decide not only whether the mandate is constitutional but also whether, if it is not, how much of the balance of the law, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, must fall along with it.
The Texas governor’s odyssey continues. Apparently Rick Perry is still under the influence of something, because, well, even Job Cohen would perform better in a debate.
That might be the most uncomfortable moment I’ve ever witnessed in presidential politics.
To my memory, Perry’s forgetfulness is the most devastating moment of any modern primary debate.
Watching Rick Perry fail to recall the third part of his own answer in tonight’s debate was like watching a thoroughbred get euthanized on the track. It was shocking, grisly and impossible to look away.
[N]obody should be allowed to get away with hazily waving at whole cabinet departments without talking about what, exactly, it is they’re saying should happen. My strong suspicion is that Perry actually has no idea what the scope of the Energy department’s defense-related activities are and is just running his mouth off.
- Edit: And Andrew Sullivan‘s reaction says all you need to know about the Republican Party. What a bunch of morons.
At this point, I have begun to really lose it watching this crew. There are only two faintly plausible, credible presidents up there, both Mormons. The rest is beyond an embarrassment, and at this moment in history, the sheer paucity of that talent is alarming.
Watch this moving video of an old man giving a speech while completely fried. Seriously: at certain points he truly sounds like The Dude, man. I can’t decide whether he’s drunk or high, though; it’s probably hard to distinguish with a Texan.
Republican presidential candidate Rick Perry raised some eyebrows Friday night with a speech performance in Manchester, N.H., that was unusually expressive. A Huffington Post reporter was in the audience for the speech but did not have a chance to review video footage of the Texas governor’s remarks until Saturday afternoon when a montage of moments in the speech surfaced on YouTube.
The video below is not a full version of his remarks. It is a carefully edited montage designed to highlight the giddiest and strangest moments of a roughly 25-minute speech. The owner of the YouTube account, CharlieJohnson1986, did not respond to a message sent to the account.
But while the video is designed to make Perry look bad, it does capture elements of his speech that were widely remarked upon in the crowd by those who saw the speech.
“It was different,” Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas told HuffPost after the speech.
Check out this video from yesterday night’s CNN/Tea Party debate for Republican presidential candidates. Wolf Blitzer asks libertarian Ron Paul the hypothetical question what should happen when a 30-something who doesn’t have health insurance gets terminally sick.
At the point when Blitzer asks “Should society let him die?”, the Tea Party crowd starts to cheer and scream “Yeah!”:
My esteem for the American voter -- at least, this subsection of the American electorate, of which I really don’t know how representative it is for the American voter at large anymore - could not sink any lower.
Republicans really are monstrous, barbarous animals. You’d almost wish some deadly, painful disease upon these ‘people’ themselves.
Because this incident does not stand alone. Watch this excerpt from the previous GOP debate, in which the interviewer mentions that under Gov. Rick Perry of Texas, the most inmates ever -- 264 people -- have been executed. Check out the reaction of the audience:
I mean, what is there left to say? Really?
The latest Republican presidential hopeful, Texas Governor Rick Perry, is, as should be clear by now, a complete lunatic. Possibly even a greater lunatic than Sarah Palin. But although Perry’s taken lots of flak the last few days, nothing beats this ad that was paid for by a Ron Paul supporter in the Austin Chronicle yesterday:
LOL. Wonder what that is all about. Note the Star Wars font too. More here.
She probably means the emissions of her own vanity and megalomania.
Sarah Palin’s ride through Washington on a Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) motorcycle yesterday as part of the Rolling Thunder “Ride for Freedom” put her back in the national spotlight as the race for the Republican presidential nomination is revving up.
The former Alaska governor joined about 400,000 bikers for the annual ride, which coincided with the first leg of a bus tour that is renewing speculation about her 2012 White House ambitions.
Palin, who had no official speaking role at the event, arrived wearing a helmet and rode on the back of a Harley from the Pentagon toward the Vietnam War Memorial. Rolling Thunder, which began in 1988, was established by Vietnam veterans to draw attention to missing service members and prisoners of war. Palin’s husband, Todd, and daughters Piper and Bristol also took part in the ride.
In a posting on her political action committee website, the 2008 Republican vice presidential candidate said Rolling Thunder, through the roar of tens of thousands of bike engines, keeps alive the Memorial Day spirit of honoring veterans.
“I love that smell of emissions,” Palin told Fox News at yesterday’s rally.
Palin’s campaign-style “One Nation Tour” by bus from Washington through New England could be a prelude to a bid for the Republican nomination — or an effort to command the spotlight as the competition heats up.
“Is this bus tour a trial run for a planned race, or is it an attempt to remain visible and relevant?” asked Charlie Cook, publisher of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report in Washington. “You can count all the people who really know what Sarah Palin is thinking and planning on one hand.”
Gaat Sarah Palin zich mengen in de strijd om de Republikeinse nominatie voor het presidentschap? Met die vraag worstelen politieke commentatoren en kiezers al maanden, zoniet jaren. Na haar gooi naar het vice-presidentschap in 2008, heeft Palin zich vooral geprofileerd als talking head bij conservatieve media en als jagende, vissende en houthakkende hockey mom van vier in Alaska. Haar PAC (Political Action Committee: officiële organisatie die campagnegeld ophaalt) is al ruim twee jaar bezig met het verzamelen van campagnegeld, maar het duurt nu wel erg lang voordat Palin zich officieel als kandidaat presenteert. Omdat ze zo lang op zich liet wachten begon het gemeengoed te worden dat ze uiteindelijk niet zou gaan voor een presidential run, want ze verdiende immers miljoenen met haar werk als spreker, politiek commentator en televisiemaker en zou het risico niet willen lopen. Een enkeling ging nog uit van een kandidaatschap. Gisteren kwam er echter nieuws naar buiten dat er sterk op wijst dat ze toch mee gaat doen.
Het blijkt namelijk dat ze al maanden, samen met regisseur Stepen K. Bannon, stiekem aan het werk is aan een documentaire. Deze 1 miljoen dollar kostende rolprent gaat over haar inmiddels neergelegde werk als gouverneur van de staat Alaska, een gevoelig onderwerp waarop ze recentelijk hard is aangevallen door haar politieke tegenstanders. Met deze docu wil ze laten zien dat ze echt wel een goede gouverneur was, hoor, en dat ze dus heel serieus genomen kan worden als ambtsdrager. Waarom besteed je een miljoen dollar aan zo’n documentaire? Juist… omdat je niet kan schrijven en toch president wil worden. Of haar ego moet zo groot zijn dat ze ten kosten van alles en zonder enig doel een smetteloze reputatie nastreeft. Het lijkt er in ieder geval sterk op dat ze expres lang gewacht heeft met het aankondigen van haar kandidaatschap om er vervolgens in een later stadium hard in te komen, met deze documentaire, genaamd The Undefeated, dus.
Ze gaat runnen. Maar gaat ze ook winnen? Blijkt na de primary in South Carolina dat ze de Republikeinse kandidaat wordt en verslaat ze daarna Obama in november? Waarschijnlijk niet. Palin is nog steeds maar bij een minderheid van het Republikeinse electoraat populair (35%) en haar favorability onder alle Amerikaanse kiezers is nog een stukje lager (31-32%). Ter vergelijking, Obama scoort op dit moment 44% en dat is al erg laag, en Palin’s belangrijkste tegenstander Mitt Romney scoort 45%. Of een zelfgeproduceerde en ingesproken documentaire daar iets aan zal veranderen is de vraag. Dat moet dan een documentaire worden met de overredingskracht van 10 keer Michael Moore. Onder het Tea Party-volk is ze nog steeds populair. Maar om straks een meerderheid van alle Amerikanen achter zich te krijgen heeft ze nog wel erg veel werk te verzetten. Het zal vooral neerkomen op de indruk die ze achterlaat tijdens de grote televisiedebatten. Als ze zich daar kan neerzetten als meer dan een goedlachse, oneliner-uitspuwende, krijsende moeder en ook als een inhoudelijk sterke en representatieve ambtsdrager, dan zou ze misschien op bredere steun kunnen rekenen.
Haar optredens tijdens interviews en debatten in de aanloop naar de verkiezingen in 2008 voorspellen voor haar wat dat betreft helaas weinig goeds. De McCain-campagne kwam meerdere malen voor vervelende verrassingen te staan als Palin weer iets doms had gezegd. Zelfs Roger Ailes, de directeur van Fox News, noemt haar tegenwoordig een “idiot”. Haar campagne zal meer in de traditie liggen van die van Donald Trump: een belachelijk circus, dat zorgt voor veel media exposure voor de “kandidaat”, dat journalisten doet handenwrijven vanwege een gestage stroom aan gaffes, rellen en malle oneliners, maar waar Obama uiteindelijk zijn schouders voor zal ophalen. De race om het presidentschap is een serieuze zaak voor serieuze mensen en niet bestemd voor clowns. Het Amerikaanse volk, hoewel (net als andere volken) erg gevoelig voor populisten en andere raddraaiers, zal uiteindelijk eieren voor haar geld kiezen en stemmen op een geloofwaardige kandidaat.
Sinds het prille begin van Light Sound Dimension doen wij verslag van ontwikkelingen in de Amerikaanse politiek. Ruim 250 van de 1673 posts die we sinds januari 2010 op je beeldscherm toverden waren gewijd aan het politieke circus in “the greatest nation”. De meeste van deze posts waren in het Engels (want dan wordt je nog eens opgepikt door de grote Amerikaanse blogs). We zien onszelf zeker niet als experts, maar na jarenlang vooral via de Amerikaanse online media de Amerikaanse politiek redelijk intensief te hebben gevolgd, en stages te hebben gedaan bij belangengroepen in Washington en een bekende tv-journalist te New York, denken we dat we hierover inmiddels misschien wel iets zinnigs te melden hebben.
In de aanloop naar de presidentiële verkiezingen van 2012 valt op dat de Nederlandse media weer eens achterblijven. Behalve bij de heren van De Jaap en het soloproject van Frans Verhagen is er nog erg weinig serieuze Nederlandse verslaggeving. Gebruikelijke MSM als NOS Nieuws, Nieuwsuur en de dode bomen zullen binnenkort ook wel weer komen, maar die beginnen hun verslaggeving meestal pas als de primaries losbarsten. 2008 en ook de mid-terms hebben ons verder geleerd dat het volgen van de Nederlandse media bij lange na niet toereikend was om een volledig beeld te krijgen. NOVA deed het goed (de uitzending vanaf de Democratische conventie met Prem Radhakishun vergeten we maar even), de NOS redelijk (behalve natuurlijk de verkiezingsuitzending op het moment suprême, die om te huilen was), maar vooral de dagbladen lieten het afweten. Verwacht daarom de komende tijd meer posts over de Amerikaanse politiek in het Nederlands op LSD. Dit betekent overigens niet dat er niets meer in het Engels verschijnt. Het wordt een bilinguaal feestje!
Goed, dan nu tijd voor wat tussentijdse “duiding”. Hoe staat het hele gebeuren er inmiddels voor? Wie gaat vanaf januari 2013 Amerika voor de economische ondergang behoeden? Mag Obama het nog eens vier jaar proberen of maakt de GOP een wonderbaarlijke comeback? Het nieuws van de week is in ieder geval dat Mike Huckabee eruit ligt. Een opmerkelijke wending, omdat Huckabee werd gezien als één van de weinige serieuze kandidaten in een Republikeins veld vol Tea Party-idioten en Birther-gekkies. Huckabee stond zelfs bovenaan in de meeste polls. De belangrijke vraag is nu: wie gaat er met de evangelical voters aan de haal? De ex-pastoor Huckabee stond vooral sterk door brede steun vanuit dat Zuidelijke kamp.
Clown Donald Trump gooit vandaag de handdoek in de ring. Na een stortvloed van gaffes en omfg-momenten, en een stevig staaltje stand-up van Obama en Seth Meyers, was de populariteit van de zakenman tot een dieptepunt gedaald. De campagne van Trump, die hij waarschijnlijk puur voor de show begon, komt dus zoals verwacht voortijdig ten einde. De Trumpster kan nu zijn wonden gaan likken. Zowel zijn reputatie als zijn (malafide) zakenimperium lijken niet veel beter te zijn geworden van zijn showtje.
Wie zijn er nog over aan Republikeinse kant? Het ligt allemaal nog redelijk open. Mitt Romney staat nog steeds sterk, hoewel de evangelicals hem waarschijnlijk niet motten. Sarah Palin heeft nog niets van zich laten horen en hoe dichter we bij de primaries komen, hoe minder kans er lijkt te zijn dat ze daadwerkelijk gaat runnen (hoewel bloggerkoning Andrew Sullivan nog van een surprise move uitgaat). Michele Bachmann, een soort tweede Palin maar dan nog gestoorder en dommer, lijkt wel aan een poging te denken. Serieuzere kandidaten zijn Tim Pawlenty en Newt Gingrich. Gingrich is een zwaargewicht binnen de Republikeinse partij. Het probleem daarvan is dat veel mensen de GOP flink beu zijn, waaronder veel Tea Party voters. Tim Pawlenty is de voormalig gouverneur van Minnesota. Zowel Pawlenty als Gingrich worden gezien als serieuze kandidaten. Het zijn mannen waarvan je je kunt voorstellen dat ze eventueel het ambt van president op een geloofwaardige manier zouden kunnen vervullen, en dat kun je van de meeste Republikeinse kandidaten niet zeggen. De vraag is of de kiezer dat ook vindt. Er zijn nogal wat hobbels op de weg voor ze.
Outsiders zijn Rick Santorum, de relatief onbekende gouverneur Mitch Daniels, Jon Huntsman (steunde ooit Sarah Palin), grassroots-lieveling Ron Paul en Herman Cain. En er zullen ongetwijfeld de komende tijd nog een aantal nieuwe namen opduiken en weer verdwijnen. Eén ding staat bijna vast: de kandidaat die de primary in South Carolina wint zal waarschijnlijk ook de kandidaat worden. Het eerste officiële (en dunbezette) Republikeinse kandidatendebat werd daar niet voor niets gehouden.
Tot slot dan nog iets over Obama. Over hope, change en de Nobelprijs gaat het allang niet meer. Over onvervulde beloftes, de eindeloze War on Terror, Millennial voters, en de dood van Osama bin Laden wel. Dat laatste wapenfeit heeft hem weer een boost in de polls gegeven. Of hij dat momentum kan vasthouden zal voor het grootste deel afhangen van hoe hij zal omgaan met de Amerikaanse schuldenlast en of hij de economie verder op de rails krijgt. Over ongeveer 17 maanden zullen we het weten. Tot die tijd, stay tuned…